the U.S. is counting on

a long-term abundance of oil & natural gas

But what if the boom is just a bubble?

False Promises

sb-reality-imageDespite recent declines in oil and natural gas production, Americans continue to be told that the United States is destined to have growing supplies of both, thanks to the widespread use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). This “shale revolution,” we’re told, will fundamentally change the U.S. energy picture for decades to come—leading to energy independence, a rebirth of U.S. manufacturing, and a surplus supply of both oil and natural gas that can be exported to allies around the world. This promise of oil and natural gas abundance is influencing climate policy, foreign policy, and investments in alternative energy sources.

The primary source for these rosy expectations of future production is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).

But what if the EIA’s forecasts are wrong?

The Reality

The Reality is that the government’s long-term forecasts—the ones everyone is relying on to guide our energy policy and planning—are overly optimistic. In fact, the Energy Information Administration has grown more and more bullish over time: It’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016 is has increased its estimate of tight oil production through 2040 by 19% compared to AEO2015 and by 37% over AEO2014. Likewise, AEO2016’s projection for shale gas production through 2040 has increased by 31% compared to AEO2015. This despite the fact that both tight oil and shale gas production are already below their peaks.

Shale plays suffer from high decline rates and declining well quality as the “sweet spots” run out, meaning that ever more wells will have to be drilled just to keep production flat—until even that is no longer achievable. Continued drilling requires massive amounts of capital, which can only be supported by high levels of debt or higher prices.


If the long-term future of U.S. oil and natural gas production depends on resources in the country’s deep shale deposits, as the Energy Department contends, we are in for a big disappointment.


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